Refining the predictive variables in the “Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System” (SURPAS): a descriptive analysis

Table 2 Comparison of Discrimination and Calibration of the Full Eight Variable SURPAS Model with Models without Systemic Sepsis but with the Addition of CPT Specific Event Rates^a

Adverse outcome	C-index			Brier Score
Adverse outcome	Full Model	Full Model with CPT Event Rate	Difference	Full Model	Full Model with CPT Event Rate	Difference
30-day mortality	0.926	0.928	0.002	0.0102	0.0103	0.0001
Morbidity	0.801	0.823	0.022	0.0904	0.0880	−0.0024
Readmission	0.699	0.723	0.024	0.0488	0.0487	−0.0001
Infection	0.774	0.805	0.031	0.0445	0.0442	−0.0003
Bleeding/Transfusion	0.850	0.875	0.025	0.0419	0.0408	−0.0011
Pulmonary	0.890	0.893	0.003	0.0228	0.0233	0.0005
UTI	0.750	0.776	0.026	0.0145	0.0145	0.0000
VTE	0.765	0.788	0.023	0.0086	0.0086	0.0000
Cardiac	0.869	0.871	0.002	0.0062	0.0062	0.0000
Renal	0.859	0.863	0.004	0.0059	0.0059	0.0000
Neurologic	0.829	0.840	0.011	0.0021	0.0021	0.0000

^aAbbreviations: SURPAS Surgical Preoperative Risk Assessment System, UTI Urinary tract infection, VTE Venous thromboembolism

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